I didn't think it made sense with Shaq and I don't think it makes sense now (of course I had the under last night).
Shaq was a 50% free throw shooter at the time. Bowen is a career 55% shooter (40% this year). If they foul him every time down the court, it stands to reason he will make about half of his free throws. Last night he did just that, making 5 of 10. That means every time down the court SA is scoring 1 point.
That also means Dallas needs to shoot AT LEAST 50% to break even. If they shoot 50% they will score on every other possession and score two points on every two trips. Bowen makes one free throw EVERY trip (averaging 50%) and SA scores two points on every two trips.
I realize Dallas may throw up some three point shots as well. Last night Dallas shot only 40% (I believe) which means they would have to score a lot of three point shots to make up for the difference. If they would have fouled him 10 straight times and he would make 10 of 20 free throws, while Dallas shoots 40% over the course of 10 trips down the court, SA would out score Dallas 10-8. Dallas would have to hit two threes just to stay even.
Staying even is not worth it because you are accumulating fouls with your team and putting the other team into the bonus.
I just don't see the advantage of it if both sides hit their averages. It might make sense late in the game when you are a little more desperate.
Shaq was a 50% free throw shooter at the time. Bowen is a career 55% shooter (40% this year). If they foul him every time down the court, it stands to reason he will make about half of his free throws. Last night he did just that, making 5 of 10. That means every time down the court SA is scoring 1 point.
That also means Dallas needs to shoot AT LEAST 50% to break even. If they shoot 50% they will score on every other possession and score two points on every two trips. Bowen makes one free throw EVERY trip (averaging 50%) and SA scores two points on every two trips.
I realize Dallas may throw up some three point shots as well. Last night Dallas shot only 40% (I believe) which means they would have to score a lot of three point shots to make up for the difference. If they would have fouled him 10 straight times and he would make 10 of 20 free throws, while Dallas shoots 40% over the course of 10 trips down the court, SA would out score Dallas 10-8. Dallas would have to hit two threes just to stay even.
Staying even is not worth it because you are accumulating fouls with your team and putting the other team into the bonus.
I just don't see the advantage of it if both sides hit their averages. It might make sense late in the game when you are a little more desperate.
hurts the game but brilliant strategy..it keeps ball away from duncan and gives the mavs opportunity to score 2 for 1..also gives both teams a rest, and that helps mavs fast break game..mavs to many weapons..nelson always getting advantage in match ups..i believe if bradley plays duncan and stays behind him defensively with his hands up, he will do a decent job there..mavs in five..
They were down by nine when they started the strategy and down by nine at halftime.
Dallas did the things they needed to do to win the game but I don't think you can actually say they won the game by fouling Bowen.
You can certainly say they won the game because they made their free throws and SA did not.
Dallas did the things they needed to do to win the game but I don't think you can actually say they won the game by fouling Bowen.
You can certainly say they won the game because they made their free throws and SA did not.
Well one thing to take into account about this strategy is even if Bowen is hitting a 50 percent. Dallas does not necessarily have to hit 50% of its FG’s to take advantage of the situation since they have the benefit of the possibly of an Offensive rebound. Yesterday Dallas shot 29/72 but had 10 Offensive rbs so the real # is 29/62 a 46% and if you add the possible fouls created I'm sure the odds will rocket to I dare say a 60% possibility of coming up with 2 points every pocession. So Unless Bowen can make that 60% fouling him is a smart choice.
just - I agree with some of your points - at least that it is not black and white as I may have implied it to be. But, also if Bowen misses his free throws, SA could also get those rebounds. Also, Dallas could foul on their offensive rebounds, etc.
And taking one game's offensive rebounds is probably not accurate enough. Looking back over the past eight games these teams have played, Dallas has averaged a little more than 10 offensive rebounds per game. But they have averaged only 43.8% shooting, averaging 37-85. So, if you factor in their rebounds, their still at 37-75 and about 50%. And they've averaged about 7 three points shots per game.
So, if they did this over a period of about 10 possessions, we could assume Bowens would make 10 of 20 free throws.
Dallas would make about half of their shots, factoring in the offensive rebounds and about one of those 10 possessions would result in a three point shot being made.
That all works out to about 11 points for Dallas and 10 points for SA. If Dallas is in desperation mode, then it is certainly worth trying. If they are just doing it during the middle of the game, then I believe the risks out weigh the benefits because you will put SA in the bonus, etc.
Anyway, it's an interesting idea but I don't really like it because it slows down the game. If they feel it gives them a better chance to win, it's certainly within their rights to do so.
And taking one game's offensive rebounds is probably not accurate enough. Looking back over the past eight games these teams have played, Dallas has averaged a little more than 10 offensive rebounds per game. But they have averaged only 43.8% shooting, averaging 37-85. So, if you factor in their rebounds, their still at 37-75 and about 50%. And they've averaged about 7 three points shots per game.
So, if they did this over a period of about 10 possessions, we could assume Bowens would make 10 of 20 free throws.
Dallas would make about half of their shots, factoring in the offensive rebounds and about one of those 10 possessions would result in a three point shot being made.
That all works out to about 11 points for Dallas and 10 points for SA. If Dallas is in desperation mode, then it is certainly worth trying. If they are just doing it during the middle of the game, then I believe the risks out weigh the benefits because you will put SA in the bonus, etc.
Anyway, it's an interesting idea but I don't really like it because it slows down the game. If they feel it gives them a better chance to win, it's certainly within their rights to do so.
